Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 215.312131 261.159457 317.749666 393.940840 495.741682 6.299216e+02 8.251716e+02
2025-07-06 158.702602 209.781715 280.738559 390.319850 562.811758 8.385711e+02 1.348082e+03
2025-07-13 137.193369 193.463195 279.108089 427.068888 695.795295 1.211438e+03 2.436651e+03
2025-07-20 121.965710 180.811188 277.088880 459.599309 835.337580 1.691942e+03 4.346509e+03
2025-07-27 109.554133 169.054296 272.320035 484.106194 971.632784 2.282249e+03 7.687469e+03
2025-08-03 98.740122 157.409468 264.311697 498.751831 1094.823920 2.969408e+03 1.349597e+04
2025-08-10 88.978643 145.639748 253.090913 502.433290 1194.113848 3.712566e+03 2.337901e+04
2025-08-17 79.693510 133.130906 237.683361 491.505233 1248.162746 4.379814e+03 3.843295e+04
2025-08-24 71.788573 122.010281 222.920730 477.689424 1287.571746 5.068523e+03 6.391979e+04
2025-08-31 65.079914 112.265525 209.294153 462.888075 1317.363757 5.790784e+03 1.094148e+05
2025-09-07 63.590365 112.575212 217.487206 509.270538 1604.836402 8.814139e+03 4.843938e+05
2025-09-14 59.589737 107.210368 211.847999 514.749691 1737.410975 1.123442e+04 1.969710e+06
2025-09-21 56.522553 103.607696 210.205553 533.800578 1961.382381 1.578518e+04 5.550227e+07
2025-09-28 52.513843 97.514223 201.543003 528.203473 2066.567780 1.982439e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 51.650803 98.159980 209.810546 582.961231 2574.729139 3.607660e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 50.429645 97.823571 215.503325 631.966270 3140.725247 6.779066e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 48.781946 96.278559 217.656105 669.191604 3707.606281 1.283019e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 46.763713 93.604028 216.165380 691.559571 4215.350962 2.392204e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 44.440368 89.927581 211.157941 697.196228 4597.411453 4.237479e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 41.743754 85.062652 201.890386 680.480650 4730.568219 6.367256e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 39.187619 80.313057 192.313596 659.419391 4794.539806 9.298501e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 36.829394 75.851487 183.018926 636.945534 4818.003020 1.344760e+06 NaN
2025-11-30 36.758575 77.150394 191.745509 707.679575 6300.409229 1.672994e+07 NaN